DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures

DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures

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DB-FPX8415 Strategic Decision Making

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Scenario Planning Frameworks

Scenario planning frameworks are objective tools used to create tactical resolutions (Tighe, 2019). Employed to foresee an organization’s future, effective scenario planning reveals the potential changes in an environment over time. Furthermore, to ensure that an organization develops various plans to avoid unforeseen outcomes, scenario planning is essential. A synthesis matrix was created based on four scenario-building frameworks. It is labeled horizontally with four authors and vertically with main points. It is important to note that some sources do not cover all main points, so some spaces will be empty. By utilizing this matrix, it helps to clearly evaluate the differences among the four frameworks so that the best one can be applied to plan for the future of the pharmaceutical industry.

Part 1: Scenario Synthesis

Day & Schoemaker (2005)
Godet & Roubelat (1996)
Hussain et al. (2017)
Ramirez et al. (2017)

Synthesis Main Points

• Assesses your company’s need for change by noticing and understanding their weak signals early.
• Identifies and assesses strategic options by using four conditions: relevance, consistency, likelihood, and transparency.
• Identifies and assesses your company’s past limitations by utilizing road mapping and scenario planning.
• Instead of predicting your company’s future, assess their strengths and reframe their perceptions.

It is not uncommon for a business to use scenario planning to consider alternatives for their organization’s future. The process of scenario planning identifies and applies various scenarios to business contingencies so that management can make wise decisions. Whether it be from assessing your company’s needs by acknowledging their weaknesses early (Day & Schoemaker, 2005) or by identifying and assessing strategic options using conditions such as relevance, consistency, likelihood, and transparency (Godet & Roubelat, 1996), scenario planning is an approach that can be used to explore and prepare for possibilities.

DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures

Understanding your organization’s limitations and utilizing road mapping (Hussain et al., 2017) can better position them for effectiveness amid chaos. Strategic planning can be gained in many ways. Instead of concentrating on foreseeing your organization’s future, focus on your organization’s strengths to reframe your perceptions (Ramirez et al., 2017). Ultimately, scenario planning has two main parts: choosing a logical scenario and predicting what could happen.

Understanding the Signals Early

Defines what your company vision should be by asking the right questions and learning from past experiences. Notice and don’t ignore the warning signs. In today’s business world, it is important to understand the “what ifs.” One way an organization can do this is by checking its peripheral vision (Day & Schoemaker, 2005). Another way is by identifying key variables and asking the right questions (Godet & Roubelat, 1996). An organization can decide to create a roadmap as opposed to a scenario (Hussain et al., 2017). Rather than predicting the “what ifs,” a company can reshape its strategy by actively exploring plausible scenarios (Ramirez et al., 2017).

Strategic Scenario Planning

Examines the company’s needs and capabilities. Once the scope is defined, asking the right questions helps in determining how to address and guide the vision. It encourages asking the right questions by identifying key variables and attending future workshops. It involves experts analyzing the company and reporting back on new ways to grow the company and integrates scenario planning and technology road mapping; combining the two methods reveals limitations in practice. Asking the right questions and formulating a hypothesis is an important step in defining prospective thinking.

Strategic scenario planning is essential for any business looking to navigate through various uncertainties (Ringland, 2010). To gain a clear peripheral vision when scenario planning, a company must ask the right open-ended questions and the responses need to be precise (Day & Schoemaker, 2005). Moreover, when identifying and assessing strategic options, a company should involve experts to conduct an analysis and report back on possible opportunities (Godet & Roubelat, 1996). Learning from past mistakes to avoid them in the future (Hussain et al., 2017) and exploring weak signals by focusing on the reasonable rather than the likely (Ramirez et al., 2017) are also strategies for scenario planning.

Scenario Planning and Technology Road Mapping

Encourages road mapping and identifying all your blind spots from the past including technology, political, and societal changes. Takes advantage of scenario planning and technology road mapping while addressing both methods’ strengths. Does not encourage scenario planning but hypotheticals. The change in technology is overestimated. Scenario planning and technology road mapping are both necessary areas worth exploring when planning for the future of a company. However, both are not always used together when testing assumptions. Some scenario planning encourages road mapping for technology (Day & Schoemaker, 2005). Additionally, to taking advantage of scenario planning, some use technology road mapping to address their limitations (Hussain et al., 2017). While companies may think that the change in technology is overestimated, focusing on reframing and perception instead (Ramirez et al., 2017).

Scenario Planning to Reshape Uncertainty

Strengthens your company’s vision by recognizing the warning signs early. Reducing uncertainties entails studying the market to anticipate and eliminate them. By combining the two methods, your company will be able to create a ‘radar’ to monitor uncertainties over time. Identify factors that are unlikely to change. Uncertainty cannot be eliminated through illusory prediction but can be reduced, and decisions can be made based on hypothetical futures.

Learning how to explore the possibilities of uncertainties using scenario planning can inevitably reshape an organization’s future (Ringland, 2010). It can give a company a jump start on acting on opportunities or threats (Day & Schoemaker, 2005). It can help a company reduce or anticipate uncertainties (Godet & Roubelat, 1996). Not to mention, scenario planning can aid a company in addressing past limitations (Hussain et al., 2017). Ultimately, scenario planning helps a company make decisions on improving areas of concern (Ramirez et al., 2017).

DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures

When trying to determine which scenario planning framework fits best in planning for the future of the pharmaceutical industry, the above synthesis matrix was created. While the top header provides the authors, the side columns include the main points of each author on the topic of scenario planning. Its purpose was to sort and organize the different perspectives presented by each source so that the best choice framework could be selected. After evaluating the four sources, it was evident that some frameworks stood out from the rest.

Companies based in fast-changing environments may need well-developed peripheral vision as opposed to those in stable environments (Day & Schoemaker, 2005). Meanwhile, companies that ask the right questions should include identifying key variables and attending future workshops (Godet & Roubelat, 1996). Furthermore, companies identifying and learning from their past mistakes could possibly avoid them in their future (Hussain et al., 2017). Lastly, companies that focus on the reasonable as opposed to the likely could perhaps avoid some obstacles in their future (Ramirez et al., 2017).

These frameworks can conceivably navigate a company through short-term and long-term changes if applied correctly. Although neither framework guarantees successful future recovery, with the proper selection of scenario methods in place, a company may be able to control the way they react to unforeseen events. Simply put, by building awareness of the possibilities of what could happen, leaders can begin to identify warning signs of challenges. In turn, they can plan and respond accordingly (Tighe, 2019).

Part 2: Scenario Framework for the Pharmaceutical Industry

As a consultant hired to conduct a decade-futures look ahead for MiracleDrugs, it is proposed that Day & Schoemaker’s framework is used. After reviewing the industry discovery summary, the best way to ensure control over uncertainty is by defining the scope, asking the right questions, and learning from past mistakes. In other words, once the vision has been defined, the necessary questions can be asked so that forward thinking can begin to take place (Day & Schoemaker, 2005). Is resource allocation sufficient?

Do we need new leadership to take the company to the next level? Are the workers skilled enough? How do we learn from our past mistakes? What is our current situation? After the right questions are asked and answered, the scenario framework will be applied. For any company, examining their history is a great learning tool when used correctly (Day & Schoemaker, 2005). By looking at the history of the pharmaceutical industry, leaders can determine the best and worst performing incentives. Learning from the past can also help determine why specific incentives were more successful than others. Not ignoring history helps to show a company’s path and measure their success (Tighe, 2019).

Is the company growing or failing? Has the company met the objectives set for it ten years ago? Combining all this information from the scope, asking the right questions, and leaning on past experiences will help shape how to plan for setting decade goals. Thorough planning is essential to meet the future, either by improving what your company is doing, changing everything, or keeping everything as it is. Due to the rapid evolution of the pharmaceutical industry, Day & Schoemaker’s framework is recommended.

DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures

The complexities of the fast-changing pharmaceutical industry are another reason. By identifying the differences between the current state and desired state of generic pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturers, leaders can begin to discuss the gaps between the two and respond strategically to the unknown. Research shows that as of today, revenue for the Generic Pharmaceutical Manufacturing industry has declined over the past five years (Kennedy, 2021). In addition to decreasing revenue, the generic industry has been troubled with other problems (Stockman, 2021). Some of those problems include the fact that

“generic drugs are a major driver of the rapidly increasing cost of drugs overall” (Kennedy, 2021, para. 7). Moreover, many organizations in the pharmaceutical industry face challenges such as changes in price structures, less patent protections, increased litigation, and more. For example, the U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain currently faces shortages, rising costs, and uneven access to essential medicines due to the high dependency on a few manufacturers to meet demand (Kennedy, 2021). While current laws and regulations dictate how the pharmaceutical industry operates, some companies could benefit from more awareness of how to plan for the unknowns.

Lastly, the use of road maps in the pharmaceutical industry can help identify and organize uncertainties. Road maps are used to show and identify how the supply chain process works and what specific areas need improvements. According to industry experts, there is an ongoing problem with shortages in the industry’s supply chain (Kennedy, 2021). With no other manufacturers to fill in the gaps when supplies run low, shortages remain problematic. While this is unfortunate, the question becomes what can leaders do now to avoid shortages in the future?

DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures

By looking at past data, leaders can study the highs and lows of the supply chain and create roadmaps to help determine a better way to solve supply chain problems (Stockman, 2021). Studying the supply chain process helps in learning how to respond to the “what ifs” and mitigate potential crises. While technology has improved, the pharmaceutical industry continues to face ongoing challenges. The supply chain continues to fluctuate and becomes worse during a crisis (Kennedy, 2021). Some companies even outsource their production needs. This can also be a problem when supply chains do not receive the anticipated demands and have to make changes at the last minute. Road maps are vital for this industry. It can address the ongoing issues within the supply chain process and pinpoint the specific areas of improvement for leaders to consider.

In conclusion, while a scenario framework is not a permanent solution, when used correctly, it can navigate a company through the unknowns. By thinking about what the future holds, a company can position itself to tackle the obstacles ahead. For the pharmaceutical industry, applying a scenario planning framework to determine a decade’s future could possibly aid in solving the future supply chain issues faced by many pharmaceutical companies. Moreover, road mapping and learning from the past helps keep companies prepared for the future. That said, it is the opinion that Day & Schoemaker’s framework would fit best in planning for the future of the pharmaceutical industry.

References

Day, G. S., & Schoemaker, P. J. H. (2005). Scanning the periphery. Harvard Business Review.

Godet, M., & Roubelat, F. (1996). Creating the future: The use and misuse of scenarios. Long Range Planning, 29(2), 164-171.

Hussain, M., Khattak, Z., Rizwan, A., Latif, K., & Shim, E. (2017). Scenario planning and the technology roadmap: A combined approach. Asian Social Science, 13(4), 1-13.

Kennedy, R. (2021). Industry outlook: 2021 generic pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in the US – Market research report.

DB FPX 8415 Assessment 4 Scenario and Alternative Futures

Ramirez, R., Mukherjee, M., Vezzoli, S., & Maki, L. (2017). Scenarios as a scholarly methodology to produce “interesting research”. Futures, 96, 10-20.

Ringland, G. (2010). Scenario planning: Managing for the future (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Stockman, F. (2021). The generic drug industry has a dirty secret. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/06/business/generic-drug-shortage-pharmaceuticals.html

Tighe, L. (2019). Building the future: Scenario planning for sustainable development. Harvard Business Review.

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